The results of Tuesday’s Israeli elections are unclear and changing by the hour as officials count the ballots. But I would like to offer some initial thoughts on the voting and how things might clear up by Friday, when the final tally is announced.
Early Polls and Election Night Predictions
The polls were predictably off again, both before election day and right after the voting booths closed. In recent weeks, mainstream media voter surveys had top challenger Gadi Eisenkot and his ‘change bloc’ slightly ahead of long-serving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his traditional religious partners on the right, though both sides were well short of a 61-seat majority in the Knesset.
Once the polls closed Tuesday evening, the three main Israeli TV channels (11, 12 and 13) announced exit polls that closely aligned, placing Bibi’s Likud just ahead of Eisenkot’s Yashar! party by about two seats (roughly 24 to 22), but the change bloc was ahead of Netanyahu’s camp by about two seats (52 to 50). That was generally in line with the pre-election polls. However, the pro-Bibi TV Channel 14 issued an outlier poll last night placing Netanyahu’s bloc at 60 seats, just one short of the needed majority. That was to be expected, as Channel 14 uses the same pollster that does internal polling for the Likud.
(Photo: Wikimedia Commons)
My sense last night was that the real results probably fell somewhere in between, with Likud slightly ahead of Yashar, and Netanyahu’s bloc slightly ahead of Eisenkot, but both still short of the magic 61 Knesset seats.
Record Arab Voter Turnout Reshapes the Election
The biggest surprise of the night was record-high voter turnout among Israeli Arabs, giving them a projected 17-18 seats, their most ever! This was largely a protest vote against the anti-Arab rhetoric and antics of far-right cabinet minister Itamar Ben Gvir, and the fact that, in his oversight of the national police force, he has done little to help curb the rampant Arab-on-Arab criminal violence plaguing their community.
The high Arab turnout had two effects. First, it reduced the number of Knesset seats available to the Jewish “Zionist” parties to 102, making it even harder for Netanyahu or Eisenkot to reach 61. Second, it raised the number of votes smaller parties needed to cross the 3.25% threshold to enter the Knesset. This likely knocked Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party and the Reservists/Economists out of the running, which also hurt both Netanyahu and Eisenkot.
So, as of last night, the pro-Bibi bloc seemed to have suffered a precipitous drop from 64 seats to possibly only 50, even as Eisenkot was narrowly ahead but still short of a clear-cut victory.
Netanyahu’s Bloc Gains Ground as Votes Are Counted
But as has so often been the case, Netanyahu defied mainstream pollsters once again, and by this morning the actual ballot count is trending much more in his favour. With 86% of the ballots counted by Wednesday afternoon, his bloc sits at 53 seats, while Eisenkot’s bloc has shrunk to 48. Meanwhile, the Arab parties are now at an unprecedented 19. The Likud and ultra-Orthodox factions appear to have driven up the numbers in their traditional strongholds, while several large Arab towns (Rahat, Sakhnin, Kfar Qasim) are only now reporting their votes.
Military and Special Ballots Could Shift the Results
However, with 14% of the votes still outstanding, there remains room for significant movement in several directions, and the final tally will only be known come Friday morning. Most of the uncounted votes are special “double envelope” ballots cast over the past week by diplomats, soldiers, reservists, the disabled, and others who cannot vote at their normal precincts. There are an estimated 650,000 of these ballots outstanding, equivalent to as many as 15 Knesset seats, and they tend to go towards Jewish or “Zionist” parties. The lion’s share of these are military personnel votes, and since the army has very few Arabs and ultra-Orthodox, those parties will likely lose a few seats to the Likud- or Yashar-led blocs. It may even put the Reservists party back in the running, which could help shift the numbers back in Eisenkot’s favour.
In any event, it seems like poetic justice that the IDF soldiers and reservists who have been fighting on the front lines since October 7 will have the last say in who comes out ahead in the race to form the new government.
Trump’s Endorsement and the Path to a Coalition
Overall, it is clear that when US President Donald Trump recently endorsed Netanyahu as a key partner in ‘finishing the job’ on Iran, it helped turn the tide for the incumbent and gave him a narrow lead. Bibi has not won the election outright, but he is in the driver’s seat, with President Isaac Herzog giving him a mandate to take the first stab at forming a coalition government, a process he knows well.
Interestingly, Trump is reportedly demanding payback by urging Netanyahu to form a centrist government of national unity that, in particular, excludes Ben Gvir on the far-right. Apparently, Washington is very displeased with the repeated incidents of ‘settler violence’ by radical elements in his support base, while the Saudis are signalling that Ben Gvir’s presence in the next cabinet would be a total roadblock to normalizing relations with Israel.
This could mean the path ahead leans toward a broad centrist government including Netanyahu (Likud), Eisenkot (Yashar), Naftali Bennett/Yair Lapid (B’Yahad), Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beiteinu), and other possible ‘Zionist’ partners. Given the serious threats and challenges facing the nation, this election outcome is not that bad. But it would mean all relevant party leaders would have to make difficult compromises on the campaign’s central issues, such as forming a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures and imposing a universal draft for all Israelis.
What Comes Next for Israel’s Government?
Bottom line: it will take another day or so for the dust to settle from yesterday’s election, but coalition wrangling drama is still ahead.
Join us Thursday, October 29, at 9:00 AM EDT (3:00 PM Israel time) for the ICEJ webinar, “Who Won the Israeli Elections?”, as we examine the results and what comes next.
